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RE: GDP forecast – preliminary 2009:Q3

In Backcast on November 22, 2009 at 10:32 PM


Here is the first Backcast entry on the site, checking an earlier Forecast issued back on October 25, 2009.

Looking back at this preliminary forecast for U.S. third quarter GDP, the +0.56 prediction, originally estimated in the mentioned previous post, ended up undershooting the +0.87 realized value.

In annualized terms, the real result equals +3.49, i.e., the rounded, proximate +3.5 percent rise noted broadly in headlines. Correspondingly, my predicted forecast equates to +2.27 in annualized terms.

For clarity, I’ve since included an updated graph here, noting the annualized comparisons, both forecasted in blue and realized in black.

Interestingly, some other models were closer in approximating this time period. Specifically, contemporaneous U.S. Industrial Production overshoots the +3.5 result, coming in at +4.04.

Also worth noting, blended linear regression including both U.S. Industrial Production and U.K. return in same time periods offered close and significant results.

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