GDP forecast – preliminary 2010:Q1

In Forecast on April 30, 2010 at 1:29 AM

Preliminary 2010:Q1 Gross Domestic Production (GDP) measures have been released for the U.K. by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) — read GDP Preliminary Estimate Statistical Bulletin – Q1 2010. The American bureau counterpart across the pond, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), will release its number regarding GDP shortly — read BEA 2010 Release Schedule. Will growth in the U.S. top the U.K. growth reading of +0.2 percent? Prediction including the U.K. contemporaneous growth measure estimates U.S. growth of +3.5 percent for 2010:Q1.

Generating the econometric model from quarterly data dating back to 1955 of sample size N = 219, the model tests statistically significant across all included variables at the 95 percent level with an associated R-squared of 0.14. The equation reads U.S. GDP = 1.84 + 0.28*Lag1_U.S. GDP + 0.68*U.K. GDP with T-stats on independent variables 1 and 2 approximating 4.27 and 2.91, respectively. For time-series comparison, bar graphs including the one-step ahead forecast are provided below:


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